According to New Poll, Mamdani Wins NYC Mayor Race if Cuomo Drops Out

Just 48 hours after antisemite Zohran Mamdani’s upset win over former governor Andrew Cuomo in the Democratic primary, an independent poll by the Honan Strategy Group indicates a statistical tie between Mamdani and Cuomo in a hypothetical five-way general election.

Both candidates garnered 39% support among likely voters. The poll included Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa (7%), independent candidate Jim Walden (0%), and incumbent Mayor Eric Adams (13%), who trailed significantly.

In this scenario, Mamdani would appear on the Democratic and Working Families Party lines, Cuomo on the Independent “Fight and Deliver” line, and Adams on the Independent “End Anti Semitism” and “Safe & Affordable” lines.

The poll highlights Cuomo’s potential as a kingmaker. If Cuomo were to drop out of the November race, Mamdani’s lead over Mayor Adams would widen to 15 points. Conversely, if Adams were to exit, Cuomo appears poised to capture Adams’s voters, gaining a slight 4-point lead over Mamdani, just outside the poll’s margin of error. However, Adams recently launched his independent re-election campaign, making his withdrawal unlikely.

The survey also revealed widespread dissatisfaction with Mayor Adams’s performance. Two-thirds of voters (67%) disapprove of his job, and three-quarters (75%) believe he is corrupt and should not seek re-election. “Adams has a steep hill to climb,” noted pollster Bradley Honan, citing public perception of the city and Adams’s tenure.

Regarding candidate favorability, Mamdani currently faces a net unfavorable rating (48% unfavorable to 40% favorable). Cuomo, however, holds a net-positive image, with 56% of voters viewing him favorably compared to 43% unfavorably.

Honan, whose firm was one of the few to predict Mamdani’s strong primary performance, attributed the initial polling discrepancies to “surge voters”—Democrats with limited prior primary voting history—whose participation was higher than anticipated. He emphasized that their early methodology had always treated Mamdani as a serious contender. Future findings from Honan Strategy Group are expected to delve into the economic concerns driving voter sentiment, which are believed to be central to Mamdani’s appeal among underrepresented voters.