‘Advanced’ Syria-Israel Normalization Talks Underway, but Uncertainty Remains

Monday Reports indicate “advanced talks” are ongoing between Israel and Syria concerning a bilateral agreement, with a focus on security coordination, according to a senior Israeli official who spoke with the Times of Israel.

While an “aspiration to expand the Abraham Accords” exists, with an official stating, “it’s no secret that we want to see Syria in this,” the path to full normalization remains uncertain.

“We will not withdraw from the Syrian Hermon, nor from the Golan Heights,” an official stated, even if a deal is reached. This sentiment was echoed by Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar, who vowed, “the Golan Heights will remain part of the State of Israel,” underscoring that Israel annexed the territory over four decades ago.

Sa’ar added that Israel “will welcome Syria to the peace and normalization circle in the Middle East” and “is interested in expanding the Abraham Accords circle of peace and normalization,” naming Lebanon and Syria.

Interim Syrian President Ahmed Al-Sharaa “seems that he is on the right path to try to establish some kind of government that benefits from the economy and investments, but you never know. We are very careful, very careful,” an official remarked. However, unnamed Syrian sources tell the Lebanese outlet Al-Akhbar that “such a step does not enjoy genuine consensus, even within the team loyal to Al-Sharaa.” These sources suggest figures close to Al-Sharaa are urging American mediators to consider a “more limited agreement — one that would declare an end to hostilities with Israel without progressing toward full normalization.”

The resistance to a peace deal is attributed to two primary factors: the difficulty for the Syrian regime to justify such an agreement “while the war in Gaza continues and amid widespread Arab condemnation of Israeli military actions,” and the fear among “pro-Turkish elements within Al-Sharaa’s inner circle” that normalization “would place Syria under significant Israeli and Saudi influence, marginalizing Ankara’s role in the region.”

Despite these challenges, National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi confirmed last week that Israel and the Syrian regime are in “daily direct contact and are discussing the possibility of normalization.” A Lebanese news channel, LBCI, reported that Syria is “not demanding the return of the Golan Heights in any potential peace agreement,” but is instead seeking “Israeli recognition of the new regime, a withdrawal from areas held in southern Syria since January, defined security arrangements in the south, and US support.”

Following a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, Prime Minister Binyamin declared that the campaign against Iran had opened “broad regional possibilities,” widely interpreted as a reference to intensified “US-backed efforts to end the war in Gaza and pursue normalization agreements between Israel and its neighbors, particularly Syria and Saudi Arabia.”

Responding to a question about a two-state solution conditioned on Saudi normalization, Sa’ar asserted that a Palestinian state “would threaten the security of the state of Israel.” He also argued that Israel’s success against Iran’s ballistic missiles, drones, and nuclear program “also protected Europe’s security.”