ANALYSIS: What Will Happen if the Iranian Regime Falls?

The Islamic Republic of Iran is facing its most critical existential threat in decades, with massive protests that have cut loose the stranglehold the terror-sponsoring government has on its populace.

Following the devastating war with Israel in 2025, the country has been plunged into chaos, driven by “enormous inflation” and a population that has shattered the barrier of fear.

According to a report by the New York Post, security levels within Iran are now higher than they were during the height of the war with Israel last year. The regime, desperate to hold onto power, has reportedly killed hundreds, or according to some reports, thousands, of protesters in recent weeks as unrest sweeps the nation at unprecedented levels.

As the dictatorship teeters, speculation is mounting over who could replace Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei if the Islamic Republic falls.

The Exiled Prince: Reza Pahlavi
Reza Pahlavi, the 65-year-old son of the last Shah of Iran, has emerged as a leading figure. Pahlavi, who has lived in Maryland since his family was overthrown in 1979, is seeing a massive surge in popularity.

When Pahlavi called for protests on January 8 and 9, his message garnered a staggering 3.2 million likes and 88 million views on Persian Instagram.

In a recent Washington Post op-ed, Pahlavi positioned himself not as a monarch demanding a throne, but as a “steward” for a “transition to democracy.”

  “Nostalgia has increased inside the Islamic Republic,” Reuel Marc Gerecht, a former CIA officer told the Post. “As the Islamic Republic’s charisma has cratered, Pahlavi’s standing has grown, if not skyrocketed.”

Experts warn that regime insiders are also jostling for position, hoping to save the system, or themselves, by pivoting to a new leader.

Hassan Rouhani: The former President (2013–2021) is being floated as a potential stabilizer. However, he is under “hard scrutiny” by the regime. Expert Ali Reza Nourizadeh revealed, “They’re listening to his telephone. They are watching him,” fearing he may be back-channeling with the Americans.

  Seyed Hossein Mousavian: A former diplomat and Princeton scholar, Mousavian is seen as another potential operator with a “well-honed survival instinct,” according to Andrew Apostolou of the Britain Israel Communications and Research Center.

Despite the high-profile names, the ultimate collapse may come down to raw power. Alireza Nader, a prominent Iran scholar, warned that the transition might not be led by a politician, but by whichever faction of the security services can seize control.

“It’s not going to be a person per se. What forces can come in and take control of the streets?” Nader noted. “As long as the regime sticks together, they’re going to kill a lot of people before it comes to that.”

With the economy in ruins and the streets burning, the world is watching to see if 2026 will mark the end of the 47-year-old Islamist regime.