Cuomo, Mamdani Neck and Neck in Final Poll

Antisemitic New York State Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani, a self-described democratic socialist, has tied with former Governor Andrew Cuomo in the final poll ahead of the Democratic primary for New York City mayor. According to a new survey released Monday, Mamdani even edges out Cuomo in the final tally of a ranked-choice simulation.

The Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey shows Cuomo with 35 percent support to Mamdani’s 32 percent, within the poll’s margin of error. City Comptroller Brad Lander trails with 13 percent, followed by City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams at 8 percent and former Comptroller Scott Stringer with 3 percent. Four percent of respondents remained undecided.

In the ranked-choice portion of the poll, Cuomo initially led Mamdani 36 to 34 percent in the first round. But after the lower-ranked candidates were eliminated through subsequent rounds, Mamdani ultimately overtook Cuomo 52 percent to 48 percent by the eighth and final round.

Under the city’s ranked-choice system, voters can rank up to five candidates in order of preference. If no one receives a majority in the first round, the last-place candidate is eliminated and their votes are reallocated according to voters’ next preferences. This continues until a candidate surpasses 50 percent.

The results mark a significant shift in momentum toward Mamdani, a Muslim, far-left figure who calls for an end to all aid to Israel. He has built his campaign in stark ideological opposition to Cuomo, who once held New York’s top office. In May’s version of the same poll, Mamdani trailed Cuomo 35 to 23 percent.

“Over five months, Mamdani’s support has surged from 1% to 32%, while Cuomo finishes near where he began,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling told NY1. “In the ranked-choice simulation, Mamdani gains 18 points compared to Cuomo’s 12, putting him ahead in the final round for the first time in an Emerson poll.”

Cuomo remains a dominant presence in the race, despite the cloud of past scandals. He is hoping to return to public office after resigning as governor in 2021 amid misconduct allegations and accusations of concealing COVID-related nursing home deaths.

Cuomo has received endorsements from prominent Democrats, including Rep. James Clyburn (D-S.C.), a senior member of the Congressional Black Caucus. Meanwhile, Mamdani has garnered the backing of progressive icons like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). However, his anti-Israel rhetoric and extreme positions have drawn criticism from moderates. Last week, The New York Times editorial board broke its neutrality policy to urge voters not to support Mamdani.

The Emerson poll was conducted June 18–20 with 833 likely voters and a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points. The ranked-choice component included 800 voters in the first round and 729 in the final round, with margins of error of 3.4 and 3.6 points respectively.

Election Day is Tuesday, June 24.