Early Voting Surges 500%, Mamdani Maintains Lead in NYC Mayoral Race

Early voting for New York City’s mayoral race began Saturday with an unprecedented surge in participation,more than five times higher than four years ago.

According to the city’s Board of Elections, 79,409 voters cast ballots on the first day of early voting, compared to just 15,418 on the same day in 2021—a 515 percent increase. Manhattan led with 24,046 voters, followed by Brooklyn (22,105), Queens (19,045), the Bronx (7,793), and Staten Island (6,420). Brooklyn saw the sharpest rise in turnout, up 589 percent from 2021, followed by Queens (+553%) and Manhattan (+527%).

The record turnout comes as the mayoral contest enters its final stretch, with polls showing communist anti-Israel Democrat Zohran Mamdani holding a steady lead over former Governor Andrew Cuomo and Republican Guardian Angels founder Curtis Sliwa.

Across ten major surveys since early September, Mamdani has maintained support in the low-to-mid 40s, solidifying his status as the race’s frontrunner.

The latest Patriot Polling survey (October 18–19) places Mamdani at 43 percent, Cuomo at 32 percent, and Sliwa at 19 percent. A Gotham Polling survey from October 14–15 shows nearly identical numbers, while Quinnipiac University’s October 3–7 poll puts Mamdani at 46 percent, Cuomo at 33 percent, and Sliwa at 15 percent.

Mamdani’s support base is anchored among younger, progressive, and foreign-born voters. According to Fox News, he commands 78 percent among very liberal voters, 67 percent among those under 30, and 63 percent among Democrats. Women under 45 favor him by 62 percent, and Patriot Polling shows he draws 62 percent of foreign-born voters compared with just 31 percent among American-born New Yorkers.

His strongest showings come from Brooklyn and among Muslim, Hindu, and atheist voters, while he trails among Catholic and Jewish constituencies. Mamdani holds 49 percent among women overall but just 36 percent among men, and a majority among nonwhite voters—51 percent of Black voters and 52 percent of Hispanic voters.

Cuomo’s appeal skews older and more moderate. Fox News found he leads among moderates and voters over 65, both at 44 percent, and women over 45 at 42 percent. He attracts 35 percent of independents and holds a narrow edge among Jewish voters, 42 to 38 percent, according to Patriot Polling.

Sliwa’s support is concentrated among Republicans and Trump-aligned voters, winning 60 percent of Republicans and 58 percent of Trump supporters. White voters without college degrees are evenly divided among all three candidates, each hovering around 30 percent. Cuomo and Sliwa perform strongest in Staten Island, while Mamdani dominates in Brooklyn.

With early voting already shattering records, both Cuomo and Sliwa are scrambling to close the gap before Election Day, while Mamdani’s campaign looks to convert its polling strength into turnout.