Europe Ramps Up Military and Civilian Defenses Amid Rising Russian Hybrid Threat

European governments are expanding military and civilian preparations amid growing concern that Russia could intensify its campaign against NATO countries supporting Ukraine. Officials have warned that Moscow may increase drone, missile, sabotage and cyber operations targeting alliance members in the coming months.

The concerns have prompted a range of measures across the continent: France is working to protect critical infrastructure, Germany is preparing hospitals for potential mass casualties, Lithuania is revising civilian evacuation plans and Poland is strengthening its air defenses.

Russia and Ukraine have been at war since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022. NATO members have provided Ukraine with substantial military and financial assistance while avoiding direct involvement in the conflict.

On Friday, President Emmanuel Macron of France summoned political party leaders and presidential contenders to the crisis room at the Élysée Palace, where they received briefings on classified French intelligence assessments concerning the security environment.

“The Russian hybrid threat against Europeans and against France has intensified,” Mr. Macron told reporters after the meeting. He said he had ordered “the government to prepare a plan to protect our critical infrastructure” and the “most sensitive” defense industry and technology sites from drone and cyberattacks.

Mr. Macron also endorsed remarks made a day earlier by Poland’s prime minister, Donald Tusk, who warned that Russia could launch drones or missiles into NATO territory in the coming months. Mr. Macron described Mr. Tusk’s assessment as “sound and well-documented.”

“There is a real risk that drones or other types of projectiles will enter the territory of one or several countries on the eastern flank and even cause destruction,” Mr. Tusk warned.

“The official narration will be that it’s an accident and there is no reason for NATO to think about a response,” he added.

Poland, which borders Ukraine and Russia’s ally Belarus, has also intensified its defensive preparations. On Saturday, Polish forces activated preventive aviation operations and increased the readiness of ground-based air-defense and radar systems as Russia conducted strikes inside Ukraine.

The measures followed Mr. Tusk’s announcement the previous day that Poland would join an anti-ballistic missile initiative involving Ukraine and other European countries.

“From today, Poland is part of this major project,” Mr. Tusk said after attending a summit in western Ukraine. He said the participating countries had reached an agreement establishing a framework for cooperation.

Ukraine and nine European nations unveiled the air-defense initiative in July. The plan calls for the countries to cooperate on developing an anti-ballistic missile system intended as a lower-cost alternative to the American-made Patriot system.

The announcement came during the first summit of the Carpathian Eight, a regional initiative established by President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine. The group includes Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Austria, Hungary and the European Union, and aims to expand cooperation in security, energy, logistics and trade.

“Naturally, security issues are a priority right now and for the years ahead,” Mr. Zelensky said in a speech.

Europe Expands Broader Preparations

Across Europe, governments are taking steps that extend beyond immediate military readiness as officials prepare for a range of possible emergencies.

Germany is preparing hospitals for the possibility of armed conflict and large numbers of casualties, according to Bloomberg. Poland’s public broadcaster reported that Lithuania had revised civilian evacuation plans in the event of a crisis.

The president of Finland, Alexander Stubb, told Finland’s MTV news on Thursday that it was “worth mentally preparing for something to happen,” including possible sabotage and Russian drone activity.

Military preparations have also increased around the Baltic Sea.

German troops reportedly took part in exercises with Swedish forces on the Swedish island of Gotland on Friday. The drills followed separate NATO exercises held near Russia’s Kaliningrad region the previous month.

Russian Activity Raises Concerns Along NATO’s Eastern Flank

Belarus, a close Russian ally, conducted four days of military exercises this week, including drills near NATO members Poland and Lithuania.

The Belarusian Defense Ministry described the exercises, which ran from Tuesday through Friday, as “strictly defensive in nature.” Officials said the drills were partly intended to strengthen the military’s ability to protect the country’s “sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

The exercises took place amid heightened tensions along NATO’s eastern flank, where a series of confrontations and suspected Russian-linked operations have deepened concerns about Moscow’s willingness to test the alliance.

Recent incidents have included NATO aircraft shooting down a Russian drone over Lithuania and a Russian warship firing flares at a Danish military helicopter. German authorities have also linked a suspected Russian operative to an attempted drone attack at Leipzig airport. The European Union said the incident showed signs of “state-sponsored terrorism.”

Politico, citing the Ukraine-based Sahaidachnyi Security Center, reported that 100 hybrid incidents across Europe between January and August had been officially attributed to Russia. That was an increase from 60 incidents during the same period a year earlier. A senior NATO official told the outlet that the actual number was likely above 200 when cyberattacks were excluded, saying, “Numbers are up, severity is up, [Russia’s] risk appetite is up.”

U.S. intelligence assessments reported by The Wall Street Journal in August indicated that President Vladimir Putin of Russia could try to test NATO with a limited attack against an alliance member in the coming years. Possible scenarios reportedly included cyberattacks and a limited ground incursion. The assessments described the likelihood of a limited land attack as low, while warning that the risk could increase over time.

Later in August, the C.I.A. director, John Ratcliffe, traveled to Moscow and warned Russian officials against attacking NATO members, with particular attention reportedly given to Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, according to Politico and other American news outlets.

Russia has also intensified its public warnings. The foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, said this week that any NATO attack against Russia would lead to a “very short” war.

NATO Says There Is No Immediate Attack Threat

Despite the heightened preparations and warnings from European officials, there is no indication that NATO considers a Russian attack imminent. It also remains unclear whether the warnings issued by European leaders in recent days reflect newly obtained intelligence.

Lithuania’s foreign minister, Kestutis Budrys, said Friday that his country possessed the same intelligence referenced by Mr. Tusk concerning a possible operation conducted under a foreign flag. But he indicated that the information dated to July.

“I see the public statements of politicians about this as part of a coordinated campaign to warn Russia not to make stupid decisions and not to try to do something thinking that it will not reach [NATO’s mutual defense clause] Article 5 and will not be washed away,” Mr. Budrys said.

Politico reported that NATO members had not been formally given new intelligence that had prompted the alliance to change its overall assessment of the threat.

“At this time, we see no imminent threat of attack,” a NATO official told the outlet, while cautioning that the alliance could not afford to be “naive or complacent.”