IDF Fears US Pressure on Syrian Hermon as New Hezbollah Operation Looms

The IDF is expressing concern that the Trump administration may pressure Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to withdraw from strategic outposts on the Syrian Mount Hermon, according to an official who spoke with Ynet on Friday.

The anxiety comes following what was described as a “warm and unprecedented” White House welcome for Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, a move that reportedly “stunned” the Israeli intelligence community. A senior IDF official warned that this represents a “dangerous, watershed-like rapprochement,” noting that “Al-Sharaa is still surrounded by al-Qaeda elements who swear to destroy Israel.”

The analysis suggests the IDF fears this new diplomatic alignment, coupled with pressure from Turkish President Erdogan, could force Israel to abandon two key Syrian Hermon outposts: Metzuda and Keter Hermon.

This diplomatic pressure is running counter to direct IDF recommendations. The military’s position, detailed in the analysis, is to “not give up the Syrian Hermon at any cost.” The summit, at an altitude of 2,800 meters, is considered critical for three “red lines” that Israel insists must be guaranteed in any renewed ceasefire agreement with Syria:

Thwarting arms smuggling routes from Syria to Hezbollah, providing air support and protection for Syrian Druze in Sweida and Khader and  maintaining full air freedom of action across Syria.

Negotiations in recent months have focused solely on revalidating the 1975 ceasefire agreement, not on normalization or a comprehensive peace treaty. The IDF has reportedly indicated that if these three security conditions are met, it could withdraw from other positions in the Syrian Golan, but the Syrian Hermon remains non-negotiable.

Turkey’s involvement is a significant complicating factor. The IDF is said to be “monitoring with concern” Erdogan’s role, as Turkey is reportedly arming al-Sharaa’s militias with anti-tank launchers and rifles. The greater fear is that this could escalate to Turkey providing advanced air defense systems, like the Russian S-400, which would “erode the air superiority” Israel has used to operate over Syria.

This perceived vulnerability comes at a time when the analysis claims the Middle East already senses “Israeli political weakness” following the “flawed agreement” with Hamas, which left the group de facto in power in Gaza.

At the same time, the IDF is bracing for a new escalation with Hezbollah on the Lebanese front.
The military reportedly expects the Lebanese army to “soon announce the end of the operation to collect Hezbollah’s weapons,” dismissing any such statement as a “false declaration.” Intelligence suggests Hezbollah is, in fact, “gaining confidence to strengthen again” and is enjoying increased cooperation with junior officers in the Lebanese army.

While the analysis describes a “different Hezbollah” than the one before the recent war—”damaged and weak, without real invasion capabilities” and with “inexperienced command”—it cautions that the group still possesses tens of thousands of rockets. Crucially, it maintains hidden workshops to convert these into precision missiles and build explosive drones, all while nursing an “open revenge calculation.”

The Israeli Air Force has repeatedly struck these assets, attacking a precision missile plant in the Bekaa Valley this week for the ninth time this year. Since the beginning of November, the Northern Command has eliminated approximately 20 Hezbollah terrorists.
According to the analysis, a “critical mass of escalation violations” has now accumulated, justifying a new “fire operation” against Hezbollah. This operation may include a “limited ground maneuver” to clear terrorist bases near the border and protect five IDF outposts situated in Lebanese territory.