Khamenei Said To Have Escape Plan As Iran Protests Grow, With Moscow As Likely Refuge

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has prepared a contingency plan to flee the country if mounting unrest overwhelms his security forces or triggers defections, according to an intelligence report cited by The Times, based in the UK.

The report says the 86-year-old leader would leave Tehran with a tightly controlled group of up to 20 close aides and family members if he concludes that the army and security services tasked with suppressing protests are no longer obeying orders.

“The ‘plan B’ is for Khamenei and his very close circle of associates and family, including his son and nominated heir apparent, Mojtaba,” an intelligence source told The Times.

Beni Sabti, a former Israeli intelligence officer who fled Iran eight years after the Islamic Revolution, said Khamenei’s destination would almost certainly be Russia. He told The Times that Khamenei would go to Moscow because “there is no other place for him.”

Khamenei, Sabti added, “admires Putin, while the Iranian culture is more similar to the Russian culture.”

The reported plan mirrors the escape of former Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad, who fled Damascus for Moscow shortly before opposition forces seized the capital in December 2024.

According to the intelligence source, regime leaders “have plotted an exit route out of Tehran should they feel the need to escape,” a plan that includes “gathering assets, properties abroad and cash to facilitate their safe passage.”

Khamenei is believed to control a vast financial empire, much of it under Setad, one of Iran’s most powerful semi-state foundations known for opaque finances. A 2013 Reuters investigation estimated the holdings at roughly $95 billion, spanning real estate and corporate assets directly controlled by the supreme leader.

Several senior figures around Khamenei already have family members living overseas. These include Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, who recently warned President Donald Trump to stay out of Iran’s internal affairs. Relatives of top officials reportedly reside in countries including the United States, Canada and the United Arab Emirates.

The intelligence assessment comes as nationwide protests driven by economic hardship spread across Iran over the past week, reaching cities including the religious center of Qom.

Demonstrators accuse anti-riot forces – made up of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Basij militia, police and army units – of using violent tactics such as live fire, tear gas and water cannons to break up protests.

Those forces ultimately answer to Khamenei, who wields overriding authority in the Islamic republic, eclipsing the government, judiciary and media. He relies heavily on the IRGC as a pillar of regime control.

The escape plan would be activated if Khamenei believes those forces are no longer loyal. While defections are difficult due to his tight grip on appointments and protection of loyalists, a Western intelligence agency’s psychological profile of Khamenei, seen by The Times, suggests growing vulnerability.

The same assessment said Khamenei has been “weaker, both mentally and physically” since last year’s 12-day war with Israel. He has made few public appearances and has been conspicuously absent during several days of escalating protests. During the war, he reportedly remained in a bunker to avoid the fate of senior IRGC officials killed in Israeli strikes, reinforcing what the assessment described as his “obsession with survival.”

The profile labels Khamenei a “paranoid” leader, arguing that this mindset underpins his contingency planning. “On one hand, he is very ideologically motivated, but on the other he is pragmatic in what he sees: he sees tactical compromise for long-term greater cause. He is a long-term thinker,” the assessment stated.

Under Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, Khameni joined the opposition, was arrested repeatedly, and tortured by the Savak secret police. In 1981, he survived an assassination attempt that left one of his hands permanently disabled.

According to the intelligence assessment, that attempt cemented a belief in a “divine mission” to rule Iran, oppose Israel and the West, and preserve the regime at all costs. After the revolution, he rose through senior posts, eventually becoming supreme leader following the death of Ruhollah Khomeini, despite lacking the traditional religious credentials usually required for the role.

Khamenei views himself as the global leader of Shi’ite Islam, a self-image that has driven Iran’s investment in what it calls the “axis of resistance,” including terrorist groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and Shi’ite terror groups across Iraq, Syria and Yemen.

The dismantling of much of that network during the war with Israel has fueled public anger inside Iran, with many questioning why resources were spent abroad while living conditions at home deteriorated amid soaring inflation. One chant heard during the protests captured that sentiment: “No to Gaza, no to Lebanon, I’d give my life for Iran only.”