Lawler Bows Out of Governor’s Race, Will Seek Another Term in Congress

Republican Rep. Mike Lawler, who represents the Hudson Valley in New York, has chosen not to run for governor and will instead campaign for reelection to his current House seat, he told Politico on Wednesday.

Lawler’s choice, first disclosed by The New York Times, clears the way for Rep. Elise Stefanik—l, an ardent Trump ally, to pursue the GOP nomination for governor without major internal competition.

Lawler will campaign for a third term representing a highly competitive district. His seat, located in the New York City suburbs, is considered a prime target for House Democrats, with at least seven Democratic candidates already vying to flip it.

A moderate known for his media savvy and political resilience, Lawler had long expressed interest in challenging Gov. Kathy Hochul. Many in the GOP had considered him one of their strongest prospects for winning statewide office in decades.

However, that aspiration was curtailed by another prominent Republican figure.

Stefanik expressed interest in the gubernatorial race earlier this year after her nomination to be Trump’s U.N. ambassador was withdrawn. Recent polling showed her leading a hypothetical primary matchup against Lawler and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman.

Praising Lawler as “a great, effective and hardworking” representative, Stefanik said she would decide on her own gubernatorial plans after the November elections.

Appearing on Fox & Friends Wednesday, Lawler said Hochul is “the worst governor in America,” but added, “after months of deliberation, I’ve decided the right thing to do for me and my family and my district is to run for reelection. My seat was determinative of control of the House back in 2022 and again in 2024.”

GOP leaders, wary of a divisive primary, had sought to avoid a repeat of the 2022 cycle, when Lee Zeldin’s crowded primary drained resources.

Many top Republicans had encouraged Lawler to remain in his Hudson Valley district, which Vice President Kamala Harris narrowly carried in 2024, arguing that his candidacy could help preserve the GOP’s slim House majority. Trump publicly backed Lawler’s reelection in May, calling him a “True America First Patriot” on Truth Social.

Lawler downplayed speculation that Trump dissuaded him from pursuing the governorship, telling POLITICO, “Ultimately, my decision is going to be my decision.”

Democrats were quick to pounce on the announcement.

“Mike Lawler caving to Donald Trump before his campaign even starts proves he’s too weak to take on Governor Hochul — and he knows it,” said New York Democratic Party Chair Jay Jacobs.

While Lawler is gearing up for another run, the road ahead may be rougher. Democrats plan to attack him over his support for Trump’s “one big, beautiful bill,” which includes controversial cuts to health care. Lawler has attempted to counter these attacks by highlighting aspects of the legislation popular in his district, such as expanding the state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap, a change he helped negotiate.

The odds remain challenging for Republicans hoping to reclaim the governor’s mansion in New York, where Democrats control all statewide chambers of government. The last Republican to win the governorship was George Pataki in 2002, but Zeldin came within striking distance of Hochul in 2022, at 47% to 52%.

Despite facing lukewarm poll numbers herself, Hochul appears to hold a lead against potential GOP rivals, according to a recent Siena College survey. She currently has $17.5 million in her campaign funds.