Mediator Says US Hostage Proposal Unlikely To Succeed

A new framework for a hostage deal prepared by US envoy Steve Witkoff is unlikely to move forward, an Arab mediator told The Times of Israel on Monday.

According to the source, the plan calls for Hamas to release all remaining hostages within 48 hours. In exchange, the US would promise that Israel would not resume fighting, and Israel would free thousands of Palestinian prisoners, including around 250 serving life terms for deadly terror attacks.

Hamas has rejected the idea of releasing all hostages at once without a binding guarantee that Israel cannot restart the war. In past negotiations, Hamas has demanded a UN Security Council resolution threatening Israel with sanctions if it resumed fighting.

The mediator noted that Hamas views US assurances as unreliable, pointing to Washington’s backing of Israel’s decision to return to battle in March rather than proceed with the next phase of a prior truce and hostage deal.

On Sunday, President Donald Trump announced that Israel had agreed to his terms for a deal to free hostages and end the war. However, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has not yet brought the matter to his cabinet, where far-right ministers are likely to resist the requirement of withdrawing from Gaza, a territory some want to see resettled.

Witkoff has long tried to persuade Hamas, through mediators, that Washington would prevent Israel from resuming war after a hostage deal. But he has avoided wording that explicitly commits to that, fearing Netanyahu’s coalition could collapse if he promises to permanently end the war in exchange for hostages.

Despite doubts, Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani pressed Hamas leaders in Doha on Monday to “respond positively” to the US plan, Reuters reported.

Hamas sources told Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper that it would be impossible to release all 48 hostages at once, claiming that some of the bodies of slain captives cannot be recovered due to IDF control of areas in Gaza.

Asharq also said the proposal does not include Israeli withdrawal from the Philadelphi Corridor along Gaza’s border with Egypt or reopening Rafah Crossing, which Israel has held since May 2024. Netanyahu has repeatedly said Israel must control Philadelphi to stop Hamas arms smuggling.

Channel 12 reported the plan envisions Israel beginning its withdrawal from Gaza at the start of the ceasefire, with negotiations continuing for up to 60 days on Hamas disarmament, the scope of Israel’s pullout, and the creation of an alternative governing body for Gaza.

The network added that Israel’s complete withdrawal would depend on the ability of the new Gazan government to maintain security. Hamas has dismissed this as a “trap,” arguing it would give Israel veto power both over Gaza’s leadership and the timing of a withdrawal.

Because of this, the US “day after” plan for Gaza is considered essential to the deal. Trump has tasked his son-in-law Jared Kushner with developing it. A senior US official told Channel 12 that Israel will have input, “but it will be neither a Bibi [Netanyahu] plan nor a Dermer plan,” referring to Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer.

Israel believes Hamas leaders are divided on the US proposal, with some doubting Trump’s guarantees and others objecting to Israel’s influence on withdrawal terms. A senior Israeli official told Channel 12, “Hamas has to understand from both Qatar and Egypt that the partial deal path doesn’t exist anymore.”

Ynet reported that the US plan includes “highly significant guarantees” preventing Israel from resuming hostilities during negotiations. It also calls for the IDF to adjust its positions and likely redeploy during a truce.

Hebrew media has previously reported that the proposal would cancel the planned IDF assault on Gaza City, leaving troops outside.

Asharq Al-Awsat said the US wants to renew direct talks with Hamas to reach a full deal, though such talks previously angered Israel when they came to light in March. The newspaper also noted that Hamas sources referred vaguely to “mediators,” which may include Israeli peace activist Gershon Baskin, who reportedly relayed Trump’s proposal to Hamas.

Baskin, who helped broker the 2011 Gilad Shalit exchange, declined to comment to Asharq.

Trump declared Sunday that Israel had accepted his ceasefire-hostage plan and gave Hamas a “last warning” to sign on. Israel has not confirmed, though a source close to Netanyahu said the government is giving it “very serious consideration.”