New Research: Wealthy New Yorkers Eye Miami Escape Amid Predicted ‘Mamdani Effect’

A coveted strip of Miami shoreline known as Billionaire’s Beach, home to landmark art deco hotels like the Delano and Raleigh alongside soaring new luxury towers, is seeing heightened interest from affluent New Yorkers sizing up South Florida as a potential refuge.

According to extensive research the The Guardian, real estate insiders say they’re watching the early signs of what they call the “Mamdani effect”: an anticipated migration triggered by socialist democrat Zohran Mamdani’s election as New York City mayor.

Some business leaders, including President Donald Trump, have played down the notion that Mamdani will spark a mass flight of New York’s wealthy. Yet Florida developers insist inquiries and purchases have surged “exponentially” in recent weeks.

At the Ritz-Carlton Residences, a set of 30 upcoming “beach house” units ranging from under $10 million to a $125 million penthouse, marketing teams say interest from New York has jumped 166% compared to last year.

Agents report similar patterns across high-end projects throughout Miami Beach, Brickell’s fast-growing financial district, and the upscale, tree-lined enclave of Coconut Grove.

Governor Ron DeSantis has joked that Mamdani deserves a realtor-of-the-year award and even floated charging an entrance tax on incoming high-net-worth New Yorkers.

A tour of Miami’s newest luxury developments shows the level of indulgence awaiting potential transplants: celebrated architectural design, expansive ocean vistas, private restaurants with Michelin-starred chefs, and full-service spas built to soothe away the pressures of city life.

At the Ritz-Carlton Residences, Miami Beach, anticipation spiked early. “The second that the word on the street was that Mamdani was going to be elected we started getting phone calls,” said Pietro Belmonte, executive vice-president at Douglas Elliman. The tower, designed by Kobi Karp with interiors by Alessandro Munge, features apartments from 1,200-square-foot one-bedrooms to upper-floor units ranging from $10.5 million to more than $22 million. Twin penthouses with private pools top out at a combined $125 million.

Residents will enjoy brass-detailed bathrooms, wraparound balconies overlooking the Atlantic, and immediate access to several José Andrés restaurants and 350 feet of beachfront. With move-in projected for 2028, Belmonte said the timing aligns with buyers weighing the long-term impact of Mamdani’s win. “I don’t see it as a mass exodus, I see it more as a thoughtful exodus,” he said.

Belmonte noted that buyers are largely seasonal. “They’re all second-home buyers. No one’s going to be here during the summer … they’ll be here for the six months and a day to make it their main residence then they’re going to be in St Tropez, they’ll be in Italy, in the Hamptons, in the Berkshires.”

In Coconut Grove, developer Ugo Colombo of CMC Group says his Four Seasons Private Residences project marks “the crown jewel” of his four decades transforming Miami’s skyline. Roughly 15% of new buyers are from New York, with interest rising another 10% around the time of Mamdani’s election.

“Most of these people already have second and third homes, right? So they’re not necessarily running to us and saying, ‘We’re escaping New York’,” said Christine Martinez de Castro, CMC Group’s chief marketing and sales officer. She said buyers began eyeing Miami during Covid, and tax considerations remain a major draw.

Units at the Four Seasons range from $6 million for two bedrooms to $18 million for spacious 4,000-square-foot homes, with a penthouse accessible only under NDA. Residents will have a European-style spa, a signature restaurant, and the relaxed ambiance of Coconut Grove. Martinez de Castro said the brand’s service sets it apart: “You want the ‘Oh yeah, I didn’t think about that’ moment, right?”

Farther north on Miami Beach, the Perigon — a 73-unit waterfront development — is attracting what developers describe as extraordinary demand from “ultra, ultra high net worth” clients. “Activity at Perigon right now … is really staggering,” said Michael Patrizio, managing director at Mast Capital. With a Michelin-starred chef, private cinema, children’s lounge, and an invitation-only speakeasy, the project caters to buyers seeking privacy and high design.

Condos start at $12.5 million for two bedrooms and climb to $70 million for upper-floor residences with sweeping views. Construction is advancing rapidly, which Patrizio says reassures buyers. “It gives certainty of delivery … there’s activity, there’s progress.”

In Brickell, the soaring 80-story Cipriani Residences will become Miami’s tallest building, housing nearly 400 condominium units in 1.2 million square feet. Even the smallest apartments start just under $2 million. Patrizio said interest from wealthy New Yorkers — though not necessarily the “ultras” — has surged since the mayoral primary. “Inquiries have increased exponentially,” he said, noting multiple buyers who committed specifically after the election.

The tower features the Canoletto Collection on its upper floors, offering 74 luxury homes designed by 1508 London. Three triple-level penthouses crown the building, each equipped with a private elevator, concierge service and an infinity pool.

Despite Miami’s building boom, Patrizio believes demand is sustainable. He points to the relocation of major firms like Citadel, Blackstone and Starwood Capital, as well as rising applications to private schools. “That means people are relocating,” he said.