Israel

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New polls released by Channels 12 and 13 released Wednesday suggests Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s current governing coalition would earn just 48 seats if elections were held today, well below the 60-seat threshold needed to form a government.

According to the Channel 12 poll, parties opposing Netanyahu, led by former prime minister Naftali Bennett and his newly established party, were projected to gain 72 seats according to the same survey.

Of those seats, 62 would go to non-Arab parties, giving the Bennett-led bloc a narrow majority in the 120-seat Knesset. (Historically, Arab-majority parties have opted not to join coalitions, though the Islamist Ra’am party joined a Bennett-led coalition during 2021-2022.)

The Channel 13 poll showed similar trends. Bennett’s party was projected to win 27 seats, with Netanyahu’s Likud closely trailing at 24. Other parties followed: Democrats at 10, Shas 10, National Unity 9, Yisrael Beiteinu 9, Yesh Atid 8, Otzma Yehudit 8, United Torah Judaism 7, Ra’am 4, and Hadash-Ta’al 4. Both Religious Zionism and Balad failed to cross the electoral threshold.

According to the Channel 13 poll, Bennett’s bloc, excluding Arab parties, would achieve 63 seats, while Netanyahu’s bloc would land at 49.

These results come during a period of tension in the current government, particularly over plans for Charedi parties to exit the coalition over the draft issue.

In the Channel 12 survey, Bennett’s party led with 24 seats, while Netanyahu’s Likud secured 22, demonstrating a competitive gap, yet also a significant base of continued support for Netanyahu.

The newly formed Democrats party, led by Yair Golan and representing a union of Labor and Meretz, emerged as the third-largest party with 12 seats.

Other parties received the following projected seat counts: Shas 10, Yisrael Beytenu 10, Yesh Atid 9, Otzma Yehudit 8, United Torah Judaism 8, National Unity 7, Hadash-Ta’al 5, and Ra’am 5.

Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party did not reach the 3.25% electoral threshold, polling at 2.8%, while the secular Arab nationalist Balad party fared even worse at 1.2%.

When asked who they saw as a more suitable prime minister, 39% chose Bennett, while Netanyahu received 34%. However, a notable 20% felt neither was an ideal candidate.

Still, Netanyahu outperformed other leading opposition figures. He led Yair Lapid by a wide margin (39% to 22%) and also held a solid lead over Benny Gantz (37% to 23%), reaffirming his position as a dominant figure on Israel’s political stage, even amid challenges.