Saudi Arabia Draws Red Line In Yemen, Signals Return To Regional Superpower Role

Saudi Arabia is setting a clear red line in Yemen in recent weeks, launching airstrikes near the port city of Mukalla aimed at curbing the advance of the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), the Jerusalem Post reported Thursday.

On Thursday, Arab News, a Saudi outlet, featured an Old West-style “wanted” front page aimed at Aidarous Al-Zubaidi, the leader of the STC. Zubaidi had been scheduled to travel to Riyadh on January 7 for talks. Instead, apparently fearing detention, he did not arrive and reportedly fled to Abu Dhabi.

The STC has maintained control over parts of southern Yemen, while Saudi Arabia supports the internationally recognized Yemeni government, which itself holds only limited territory across the country.

Riyadh’s strikes against the STC marked a dramatic departure from the past. For years, Saudi Arabia and the UAE were broadly aligned in Yemen, but their objectives and local allies increasingly diverged. In a swift series of developments, Saudi Arabia directly confronted the STC, pushing it back toward Aden and effectively dismantling its grip on power within the span of roughly a week.

In the aftermath, the Yemeni government, represented by the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), consolidated control over southern Yemen, reclaiming areas that had been under STC authority.

Arab News wrote that “at a time when he should have acted like a statesman and boarded the plane scheduled to take him to Riyadh on Tuesday evening to meet and shake hands with Yemeni President Rashad Al-Alimi, agreeing to prioritize the interests of the Yemeni people and seek forgiveness for actions taken for personal gain at the expense of the nation, Aidarous Al-Zubaidi chose instead a ‘no-show,’ cementing his image as a traitor to his country.”

The Saudi outlet accused Zubaidi of promoting the secession of southern Yemen, reinforcing Riyadh’s portrayal of the STC as a separatist movement.

While Zubaidi stayed away, the Yemeni government’s leadership did convene in Saudi Arabia on January 7.

Arab News reported that “the Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council, headed by Al-Alimi, held an emergency meeting attended by members Sultan Al-Arada, Tariq Saleh, Abdulrahman Al-Muharrami, Dr. Abdullah Al-Alimi, and Othman Mujalli.” The PLC is now moving to consolidate authority after years of internal weakness and fragmentation, during which the UAE-backed STC had appeared ascendant. The STC’s rapid collapse after a week of clashes is widely seen as a broader warning to the region.

Recent events have underscored how structures that appear strong can unravel quickly, as seen with the Assad regime’s sudden collapse over a single week in early December 2024.

While the STC and the Assad regime are fundamentally different, the comparison highlights regional volatility. The Assad government ruled Syria for half a century. Southern Yemen, by contrast, traces its political identity to the 1960s, existed as an independent state, and later unified with North Yemen in 1990. Saudi Arabia has long viewed renewed attempts to revive an independent South Yemen with concern.

The STC’s push for expanded autonomy, and potentially independence, appears to have triggered alarm in Riyadh in December 2025. The group had made notable territorial gains earlier that month, prompting Saudi airstrikes and calls for the UAE to withdraw its support from southern Yemen. Once that backing faded, the STC seems to have crumbled amid mounting pressure and political maneuvering.

Only days before its downfall, Kurdish outlet Rudaw reported that “the Southern Transitional Council (STC) has consolidated control over southern Yemen and is stepping up its international outreach to advance what it describes as the South’s ‘legitimate right to self-determination,’ a well-placed source in Aden told Rudaw on Tuesday.”

The STC’s reliance on Emirati support proved to be a critical vulnerability. Yet broader regional considerations were also in play. Reports circulated suggesting that Israel’s recognition of Somaliland in December could be part of a larger realignment, potentially encouraging Israeli backing for the UAE’s position in Aden. Middle East Monitor noted that Israel’s Maariv newspaper “says recognition of Somaliland could pave the way for a similar move in south Yemen against Houthis.” Iran’s Mehr News likewise accused Israel of “eyeing” southern Yemen.

These dynamics raise the question of whether Saudi Arabia’s rapid move against the STC was tied to wider strategic concerns in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. Israel’s recognition of Somaliland sparked discussion about shifting power balances in the Horn of Africa, an arena where Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Turkey, and others all compete for influence. Riyadh and Abu Dhabi also diverge over Sudan, with Saudi Arabia reportedly favoring a ceasefire and closer alignment with Egypt, while the UAE has been accused of backing the Rapid Support Forces. Similar tensions appear to exist in Somaliland, where Emirati interests are well established.

Saudi Arabia is intent on preventing a gradual erosion of its regional standing. It has sought to stabilize ties with Iran through China-backed talks, improved relations with Turkey, and supported outreach by Syria’s new government to Washington. Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister was in Washington on January 7.

According to the Saudi Press Agency, “Minister of Foreign Affairs, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, arrived in Washington on Wednesday on an official visit to the United States.” US Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with him the same day, later writing, “Just concluded a meeting with Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan to discuss continued coordination in support of Middle Eastern security and stability, including in Gaza, Yemen, Sudan, and Syria.”

Multiple regional developments appear interconnected, according to the Jerusalem Post. The UAE and Ethiopia have urged dialogue in Sudan. Arab News also reported that “the General Secretariat of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation announced that an extraordinary meeting of the OIC Council of Foreign Ministers would take place in order to discuss the rapidly escalating developments in Somalia.” This followed a January 6 visit to Somaliland by Israel’s Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar.

Saudi Arabia is visibly reasserting itself as a central regional actor. This comes as the US backed a trilateral meeting in Paris involving Israel and Syria, and as Israeli officials voiced concern over clashes between Syrian government forces and Kurdish groups in Aleppo. Riyadh is closely monitoring developments across Somaliland, Yemen, Sudan, and beyond.

Against this backdrop, Saudi Arabia’s growing confidence may shape how it responds to recurring reports about potential normalization with Israel. Riyadh has made clear it seeks tangible changes in Gaza and in Israel’s policies toward the Palestinians.

The notion that Saudi Arabia would normalize relations without receiving anything in return is unrealistic. Riyadh has also bristled at disparaging remarks from some Israeli politicians, including a comment telling Saudis to “keep riding camels.”

Saudi Arabia’s actions in Yemen demonstrate that it will not tolerate perceived slights or challenges to its interests. When Riyadh draws a red line, it is prepared to enforce it. Regional actors who may have underestimated Saudi resolve are now reassessing. After years marked by setbacks following the 2015 Yemen intervention, Saudi Arabia appears once again firmly in control of its regional strategy.