Study: Hamas Saw Anti-Reform Protests and IDF Refusals as “Golden Opportunity” for October 7 Attack

A new study published by the Jerusalem Center for Foreign and Security Affairs asserts that the wave of refusals to serve in the IDF during the protests against judicial reform was a decisive factor in Hamas’ decision to launch the October 7 massacre, Channel 14 reported Thursday evening.

According to the study, authored by Yonatan Duchoch Halevi, the terror group viewed the “refusal” or “non-volunteerism” campaign promoted by groups such as Brothers in Arms as the “beginning of the end of the State of Israel.”

Halevi, who analyzed hundreds of Hamas documents and press materials, concludes that “Hamas recognized the erosion of Israel’s deterrence and national resilience as a strategic opportunity.” From the perspective of the terrorist organization, the internal strife was interpreted as “a rebellion of refusal and a military coup and as a golden dream opportunity for an attack.”

The study highlights that Hamas leadership closely monitored Israeli media reports regarding the protests and the threats by reservists to stop serving.

Ismail Haniyeh addressed this in a Hamas executive committee meeting on January 14, 2023, stating that “the Zionist entity is in an unprecedented internal situation.” Quoting Ehud Barak, Haniyeh concluded with a verse from the Quran that “their hearts are divided.”

Yahya Sinwar echoed this sentiment on March 6, 2023, stating: “The crisis in the entity is deep, not just a civil war, but the disintegration of the glue that binds the components of the entity… The continuation of this situation over time will lead them to a dangerous situation, more dangerous than the Yom Kippur War.”

Senior Hamas official Muhammad Mardawi stated in an August 2023 video: “Pay attention: capital (in Israel) is fleeing, the army is crumbling, and [people] do not want to serve [in the army]; this is how the factors of weakness of both the first and second houses are manifested.”

The military intelligence of the Izz ad-Din al-Qassem Brigades reportedly monitored the refusals and initially recommended that Sinwar wait to attack to let the internal conflict intensify.
A Hamas intelligence document submitted to Sinwar in July 2023 specifically detailed “the number of pilots who refuse to serve, where they serve, their ranks, and what percentage they make up of the air force’s combat strength.” The document noted that the Brothers in Arms organization had announced “ten thousand soldiers who declared that they would not serve in the reserves.”

Hamas intelligence concluded that “the pilots in the Air Force are the most influential factor in this crisis.”

The study notes that Hamas followed Israeli media with “almost religious devotion.” Just two days before the attack, Channel 12 published an article titled “The Protest Effect” regarding the damage to the pilot’s course.

According to the study, the terror group was certain they could defeat the IDF because “Israeli society was on the verge of dissolution.”