Belaaz Election Preview: What We’ll be Looking at on Tuesday Night

Americans are preparing to stream to the polls for the 60th time this Tuesday, though for the second time the pervasive number of early voters and absentee ballots means that approximately 75 million votes have already been cast. This is a quarter of the total number of votes expected.
Donald Trump, a former Republican president, and Kamala Harris, the Democratic vice president, are vying for the White House.

The following is a Q&A about the election:

When will we know who won?

This is a difficult question to answer. Traditionally, people voted by day and found out the results later that evening. Each one of the 50 states plus Washington DC counts their votes and delivers the winner’s name to Washington. Of the 538 electors, the candidate with 270 is declared the president-elect. The possibility exists for a 269-269 tie — in which case the House of Representatives votes for president and the Senate for the vice president — but that has never happened before.
All states except for Maine and Nebraska are winner take all.

With polls predicting a tight election, however, a winner might not be announced on election night. If enough states that decide the election are so close that absentee or early ballots make the difference, the winner might not be known until days or even weeks later. In addition, most states allow for a manual recount if the vote is within a percentage point or 1.5 percent.

Republicans generally vote on election day while Democrats tend to take advantage of early voting. Since states first count the votes that come in on election day, this may lead to what is known as the “Red Mirage,” in which the Republican appears to be winning, and then the “Blue Shift,” when more Democratic votes come in.

I read that Trump and Harris both spent hundreds of millions of dollars on advertising but I didn’t notice any ads. Why is that?

Here’s where the swing states come in. Most states are known in advance to whom they will award their votes — New York, New Jersey and California, for example, haven’t voted Republican since 1988 while Texas is a ruby red state. Therefore, candidates spend their money where it can make a difference.

There are seven swing states, plus several more in which polls indicate both candidates have a chance. For example, Harris can rely on 226 electoral votes while Trump can assume he has 219 in his corner. This means that Harris must win 44 votes and Trump needs 51.

The biggest of these prizes is Pennsylvania, which has 19 votes, followed by Georgia and North Carolina with 16 each. Michigan, with its 15 votes, was a safe Democratic state but Arab American anger at President Joe Biden’s support for Israel has made it into play for Trump.

Arizona has 11 votes, Wisconsin has 10 and Nevada has six.

Who is favored to gain control of the Senate?

There are currently 51 Democrats and independents who caucus with them in the Senate and 49 Republicans. John Manchin, a Democrat from West Virgina, is not running for reelection and the Republican nominee, current Gov. Jim Justice, is expected to win. With all of the Republicans in safe seats or leaning in their column, this would nearly guarantee them 50 seats. If Trump wins and the vice president casting a vote in case of a tie, this would give them majority control.

However, four Democrats are in the toss-up column, meaning that either side could win. Republicans need to win just one of them to gain a majority regardless of whom wins the White House.
The four Senate races classified as toss ups are the following:
– In Ohio, Sen. Sherrod Brown, the Democratic incumbent, is trailing Republican Bernie Moreno in a state Trump carried twice.
– In Montana, Sen. Jon Tester, the Democratic incumbent, is trailing Republican Tom Sheehy, in a red state.
– In Arizona, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, an independent who caucuses with Democrats, isn’t seeking reelection. Republican Kari Lake is facing off against Democrat Ruben Gallego, who has consistently polled several points ahead.
– In Nevada, Sen. Jacky Rosen, the Democratic incumbent, is polling even with Republican Sam Brown.

Who will control the House?

That’s a much more tricky question to answer since there are 435 individual races. But most of them are safe seats and ratings websites generally put no more than two dozen into play.

Of these, 191 Republicans and 175 Democrats are in safe seats. Ten Democratic districts and twelve Republican ones are in toss-up status.

By the way, these include four of the five New York Republicans who unexpectedly won two years ago. While Mike Lawler is in the “lean Republican” column, the others, such as Marc Molinaro, Brandon Williams and Anthony D’Esposito are lean Democrat.
This would give Democrats the upper hand in controlling the House. However, House races are notoriously decided by how the presidential race goes. Whichever party wins the White House usually ends up taking the House as well.